Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Twenty-six seconds left in Super Bowl XLIX, second down on the one-yard line, and Seattle’s Pete Carroll called a pass instead of handing to Marshawn Lynch. It was intercepted; USA Today called it the worst play call in NFL history. Yet none of the sixty-six passes thrown from an opponent’s one-yard line that season had been intercepted, and the fifteen-year rate was 2 percent. A defensible call, a disastrous result. Poker players have a name for what his critics did: resulting — grading a decision by how it turned out. Two things decide how a life goes, decision quality and luck, and most of our errors come from refusing to separate them.

Annie Duke on SummaryShelf

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts